Weather Around The World, 10/28/14

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Cyclone Nilofar will be the equivalent of a major hurricane on Wednesday, but weaken before landfall in northwest India. Forecast courtesy of US Navy

Cyclone Nilofar will be the equivalent of a major hurricane on Wednesday, but weaken before landfall in northwest India. Forecast courtesy of US Navy

The tropics won’t give up this year. A powerful storm is churning in the Arabian Sea, while a new, potentially dangerous one develops in the eastern Pacific. And moisture from defunct storms bring flooding rains to places as far from the ocean as Greece.

Meanwhile, a wintry blast is coming to the eastern US, with mention of — dare we say it — snow in the forecast.

Halloween could be more of a trick than a treat for kids in frigid New England, with wind chill temperatures below freezing.

On the other side of the so-called pond, warmth continues in northern and western parts of Europe, notably the United Kingdom and Scandinavia, while the rest of the continent returns to more moderate temperatures after a long warm period.

Let’s go around the world.

The Tropics: A Powerful Cyclone And An Incipient Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Nilofar formed in the Arabian Sea last week. To avoid problems with local nomenclature, Decoded Science will use hurricane equivalents for tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean.

Because India separates the northern Indian Ocean into the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, tropical systems have limited opportunities to develop before interacting with land. Nevertheless, with the water temperature in the mid-80s, development can be rapid when atmospheric conditions are favorable.

Nilofar is now a category two hurricane, with winds of 110 miles per hour as it drifts northwestward towards Oman. All forecasts turn the storm away from the Arabian peninsula and towards India, with a landfall near the border of Pakistan on Saturday.

Nilofar will briefly reach category three status (winds over 115 miles per hour) on Wednesday, then weaken rapidly as upper winds become hostile, but it will still be a tropical storm at landfall.

Tropical Storm Vance is still in utero, but will be born within the next couple of days in the cradle of activity south of Mexico. Currently it looks like Vance will meander over open waters as it becomes a hurricane, but with the jet stream dipping ever further south at this time of year, it could be pushed onto the Mexican coast on the same path as last week’s Tropical Storm Trudy.

Some Old Tropical Systems Never Seem To Die

Hurricane Gonzalo was a reminder of the range of potential effects of tropical systems. After hitting Bermuda and brushing Newfoundland, Gonzalo became a powerful extra-tropical cyclone as it passed north of Scotland, bringing strong winds to much of the UK. But Gonzalo wasn’t done. Moisture from the system dove southeastward across Europe, and caused flooding rains in Greece Friday and over the weekend. Finally, more rain will fall over the Balkans this week before Gonzalo is finally gone.

Tropical Storm Trudy has had even more incarnations than Gonzalo. A weak tropical storm in the eastern Pacific early last week, Trudy caused flooding as it crossed Mexico. When the remains got to the Gulf of Mexico, Trudy became known as Invest 93-E, but it could not reach tropical storm strength before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. After crossing into the Caribbean, Trudy’s remains regenerated to  tropical storm strength and the re-born entity was called Hanna.

Hanna has now reached the Central American coast and is no longer a tropical storm. There is an outside chance that the system could be discernible as it crosses back into the Pacific. A strange saga for a very minor tropical system.

Hurricane Ana skirted the Hawaiian Islands last week, turned north and then northeast, and got caught up in the jet stream. Moisture from Ana is now enhancing rainfall in Washington and Oregon.

First Cold Blast Of The Season For The Midwest And Northeast Follows Record Warmth

The trough and ridge pattern in the jet stream will bring temperature departures from normal both warm and cold. Forecast courtesy of NOAA

The trough and ridge pattern in the jet stream will bring temperature departures from normal both warm and cold. Forecast courtesy of NOAA

It will be shades of winter 2013-14 for the midwest and northeast later this week, as the jet stream folds up into a trough and ridge pattern that will form corridors for warm air to stream northward from the Gulf of Mexico, then cold air to plunge southward out of Canada.

High temperatures up to 20 degrees above normal in much of the east will be replaced by temperatures 20 degrees below normal.

  • High temperature records were set from Michigan to Tennessee on Monday.
  • High temperatures in Chicago will be confined to the mid-40s on Friday and Saturday.
  • Ditto for New York on Saturday and Sunday.
  • Buffalo, NY won’t reach 40 degrees on Saturday, and a light dusting of Lake-Effect Snow will be a reminder of what winter can be like in the snow belt.

European Weather Affected By A Split In The Jet Stream

The position of the jet stream well to the north of normal has caused all of Europe to be warm for almost a year. The pattern has now changed, as a southern branch of the jet stream has developed and will bring more seasonal temperatures across southern areas this week.

Extended forecasts call for a moderation in temperature across all of Europe beginning in early November.

Weather For The World Series Finale

Game six of the world series will be played tonight in Kansas City, with game seven tomorrow if it is necessary. The temperature will be absolutely average for the time of year — in the 50s at game time — with no precipitation. Go Royals.

Watching Winter Weather

As fall morphs into early winter, storm-lovers will turn their attention from the tropics to the middle latitudes. Will it be another wicked winter in the US or will global warming dominate? What do you see where you are?

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