Do Polling Trends Support the Data?
RealClearPolitics has averaged results from two recent Iowa polls. One is the PPP poll, which had Gingrich leading the race with 22 percent of the vote. The other is from Insider Advantage, and has Gingrich leading with 27 percent of the vote: 10 points ahead of Paul, who leads Romney by five points. The Insider Advantage poll may also have methodology flaws, since it was only conducted in the span of one day, December 12. Although the number and quality of polls are not substantial, plotting the averages by day indicates a steady dip for Gingrich, from 31 percent on December 10, to 30.8 percent on December 12, to 29.3 percent now. However, Paul’s number has not been steady, going from 17.3 percent on the 10th, to 16 percent on the 12th, and now back up to 16.7 percent.
GOP Nomination: National Polls
National polling trends are somewhat more easy to analyze, since there have been five polls since December 10. These results had Gingrich peaking on December 13th with a 35 percent average, and dropping to 33.5 percent the next day, after a Reuters poll was released giving him only 28 percent of the vote, down from the 30 to 40 percent ranging numbers he had previously earned. Paul’s national average closely mimics his Iowa average. He was at 9.5 percent on December 10, dropped to 9.3 percent on the 12th, and is now averaging 9.7 percent.
Public Policy Polling. Iowa Poll, Methodology. Accessed December 14, 2011.
RealClearPolitics. 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination, GOP Iowa Caucus. Accessed December 14, 2011.
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