Santorum Ties Romney According to Nationwide Gallup Poll

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Will Romney Come Back?

Romney's campaign is struggling to win states they had been counting on, such as Romney's home state of Michigan. Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore

It is too soon to tell whether Romney’s February 11 victory in Maine will help his overall polling numbers recover. Although some of the most recent polls included data collected following February 11, all of them were conducted in spans that included more days prior to the Maine caucuses. Even if Romney experiences another surge in the coming days, he seems to be in for a struggle to keep up momentum in winning statewide races, and a looming loss in his home state threatens to bring negative press. To Romney’s benefit, he is polling well ahead of any challengers in the Arizona primaries, which will be held the same day as the Michigan race. The next election day will be March 6, known as “Super Tuesday,” when Republicans in 10 states will head to the polls. This may throw another shakeup into the GOP race, as the polls released so far indicate that Gingrich is polling far ahead of any other candidates in Georgia, Santorum is leading in Tennessee, and Romney and Gingrich are vying for the lead in Ohio.

Interpreting the Poll Results

The Gallup daily tracking results are consistent with information released from other pollsters within the past several days. CBS/NYT and Pew Research polling also indicate statistical ties between Romney and Santorum, however both of these pollsters have Santorum as the frontrunner by razor-thin margins. Public Policy Polling has Santorum with a significant lead — 15 points ahead of Romney. Fox News Polling contradicts this with numbers indicating a 10 point lead for Romney. When all this data is averaged, Romney and Santorum remain neck-and-neck. The race will likely stay somewhat stagnant until the end of the month, when more debates and news coverage will begin prior to the February 28 and Super Tuesday races.

Sources

Gallup. Santorum Surges to Tie Romney. Accessed February 14, 2012

RealClearPolitics. 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination. Accessed February 14, 2012

CNN. Surging, Stagnating, Staying Relevant in the GOP Race. Accessed February 14, 2012.

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