Sixty percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters believe that Mitt Romney will carry the 2012 presidential nomination, according to a Gallup poll released January 9. Although Romney has led each of the three times Gallup polled on this issue, the percentage of those who think he will be the nominee has increased by more than 20 percent since early December. Temporary surges apparently impacted polling in December, when 35 percent believed Newt Gingrich would be nominated. Despite strong performances by Rick Santorum and Ron Paul in the Iowa caucuses, neither of these candidates are polling with as much confidence as Romney. The Gallup poll indicated that the closest candidate, Rick Santorum, had 11 percent of the vote, trailing “None/Any/No Opinion” by two points. Newt Gingrich earned eight percent of the vote, followed by Ron Paul with 4 percent.
Expected GOP Nominee: Gallup Polling Methodology
The sample consisted of 1117 self-identified registered Republicans, and Independents who lean Republican. The actual number of Republicans interviewed was 1242, but this particular question was only presented to those who stated they were registered voters. Interviews were conducted January 4 to January 8, 2012, immediately following the Iowa caucuses, which were held January 3. Respondents were contacted on landlines and cell phones. There was a quota of 400 cell phone users and 600 landline users for this poll. Phone numbers were dialed randomly, and results were weighted for demographics, adults in household, and phone status. The margin of error was +/-4.
Decoding Science. One article at a time.