Presidential Election – Interpreting the Nationwide Polling Results
More reliable evidence of Obama’s lead can be gathered from aggregate hypothetical matchup polling. According to RealClearPolitics, Obama has polled ahead of Romney in 11 of the 14 major polls conducted so far in March. His leads have ranged from 2 to 12 points, with five of the polls rating his lead higher than 4 points — likely outside the margin of error. The polls in which Romney edged Obama consisted of a Bloomberg poll that had the candidates tied, a Rasmussen poll in which Romney led by one point, and an ABC News/WaPo poll that had Romney leading by two points. None of these revealed statistically significant leads for Romney.
Swing State Polling Results
Obama’s lead in swing states was statistically significant, according the poll, at more than double the margin of error. High numbers in polls such as these are likely the most coveted by the presidential campaigns, since there is an established science in collecting electoral votes to win the presidency. Since 1960, no candidates for president have been victorious without winning some combination of two states that include Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.
Gallup. Obama 49%, Romney 45% Among Registered Voters Nationwide. Accessed April 3, 2012.
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