Obama vs. Romney: New Gallup Poll Shows Biggest Obama Lead Yet


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Is a second term likely for President Obama? Photo: US federal government, public domain

Is Obama’s re-election inevitable?

Forty-nine percent of registered voters would re-elect President Obama if given the opportunity today, according to Gallup daily tracking polling released April 2, 2012.

Mitt Romney, the likely Republican challenger, received 45 percent of the vote in Gallup’s hypothetical matchup.  The difference between the two candidates is within the 4 point margin of error, but also represents the biggest spread between the two candidates Gallup has recorded thus far into campaign season.

Obama maintains a more significant lead of eight points over Romney’s main challenger for the GOP nomination, Rick Santorum.

Obama Picks Up Support in Swing States

Gallup has also identified for the first time an Obama lead over Romney in 12 swing states. A separate USA Today/Gallup poll revealed 51 percent support for Obama among registered voters in swing states, some of which included Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Romney was rated at 42 percent among swing state voters.

Gallup Daily Tracking Methodology

The nationwide polling data released by Gallup Daily Tracking was collected on March 25 and 26, from a sample consisting of 901 registered voters.

The USA Today/Gallup poll was conducted from March 20 through March 26. The sample consisted of 933 registered voters residing in the following 12 states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Gallup uses live telephone interviewers to contact respondents on landlines and cell phones. Poll results are weighted for demographics, phone status and multiple adults in households.

Romney vs. Obama: Is the Margin of Error Significant?

Margins of error are used on polling to account for the chance that randomly selected respondents will not represent a completely accurate snapshot of the total population. If the exact same poll were conducted multiple times, results could fall anywhere within the margin of error parameters.

While Obama’s lead over Romney seems to be steadily expanding in Gallup polls, these most recent results still indicate a statistically insignificant margin nationwide between the two candidates. Technically, the two candidates’ nationwide percentages could be interchanged, and the poll would still be statistically accurate.

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