Obama Up in New Poll, but Were Republicans Fairly Represented?


Home / Obama Up in New Poll, but Were Republicans Fairly Represented?

The Tea Party movement may explain why Republican identification is dwindling in favor of conservative Independent identification. Photo Credit: Wispolitics

A poll released this week by ABC News/Washington Post has Obama leading Romney in a hypothetical matchup, 49 to 46 among U.S. adults. Enthusiasm for Obama is also very high among his supporters who are registered to vote, at 93 percent compared to 75 percent among Romney’s supporters. While respondents were selected at random to participate in this poll, demographic party identification data shows a 10 point spread in favor of Democrats. Does this make the poll biased?

ABC News/Washington Post Demographic Data

The poll was conducted from May 17 to May 20, 2012. Respondents were contacted randomly via landline and cell phone. The sample size was 1004 adults. For some questions, the sample was broken down to only include registered voters. The margin of error for the entire sample was +/-3.5.

A History of More Democratic Participants

ABC New/Washington Post polls have consistently polled more Democrats than Republicans thus far in 2012. Demographics for the most current poll show that 32 percent of respondents identified as Democrats, 22 percent identified as Republican, and 38 percent identified as Independent.  Demographics have been similar each month since January, with Democrat identifications ranging from 31 to 34, Republican identifications ranging from 23 to 27, and Independent identifications ranging from 34 to 37.

In this most recent poll, Republican identification was at an all time low for 2012, at 22 percent. Independent identification was at an all time high for 2012, at 38 percent.

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