Obama Gaining Support Among Independents, Women, According to Gallup “Swing State” Poll

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Will swing state Independents decide the election for Obama? Photo credit: SEIU Walk a Day in My Shoes 2008

Independent voters in swing states currently prefer President Obama over Mitt Romney, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted in 12 swing states from March 20-26, 2012.

Swing state Independents indicated they’d most likely vote for Romney last year, but their preferences seemed to have shifted, as the Gallup poll had 48 percent selecting Obama and 39 percent selecting Romney in a hypothetical matchup.

Independent Women Leaning Toward Obama

Independent female voters accounted for much of the shift benefiting Obama. When the poll sample was broken down by gender, Independent males preferred Obama by 1 point, and Independent females preferred Obama by 14 points.  When Gallup conducted similar polling from October to December of 2011, Romney edged Obama by 11 points among Independent men, and Independent women preferred Obama by 5 points. The net change in support for Obama from last year’s polling to this year’s polling was +8 points among both men and women. Decline in support for Romney is more dramatic among the female demographic, with a net change of -11 points, versus a net change of -4 points among men.

Gallup Swing State Polling Methodology

The USA Today/Gallup poll consisted of a sample of registered voters residing in the following states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.  A total of 933 voters were interviewed for various aspects of the poll, 371 of whom were Independent swing state voters. The margin of error for this small segment of the sample was +/-6 points.

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