A Statistical Method for 2012 Election Vote Fraud Allegations

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In Conclusion, are the Allegations Inconclusive for Wood County, Ohio?

Wood County, Ohio – Do voter fraud allegations hold up? Image by Wesley Fryer

Should we issue a report card for the “108% allegations”?

This article only presents a pro forma demonstration of a statistical approach to election results and polling statistics. It indicates the types of data a researcher seeks, to determine whether election results are consistent with usually-reliable opinion polls. Along the way, it suggests extra statistical tests, such as historic patterns in voter registration, turnout or margins of victory in one county, with comparisons to the state or nation.

In further exploration, statisticians might attempt to determine the standard deviation for Gallup polls on Wood County Ohio alone over past presidential elections; the Gallup prediction for Wood County, and ensured the sample was not drawn directly from the questionable voter registration list.

An audit of the Wood County census and voter registration practices would help clear the air in this area. Is the “excess registration” explained by Bowling Green State University students from elsewhere in Ohio, living in Wood County for an academic year, and lawfully entitled to register and vote there?

Registration Fraud, Wood County, Ohio?

Registration fraud in Wood County might have gone unnoticed until 2012, but these statistical methods found insufficient evidence to support this particular allegation of election fraud in Wood County, Ohio’s participation in the presidential election of 2012.

References:

Aurelius. Good News: Obama Won County in Ohio with 108% Voter Registration. (2012). Pundit Press.  Accessed November 19, 2012.

Exner, Rich. Ohio voter registration list nearly 500,000 smaller than in 2008: Statistical Snapshot. (2012). Plain Dealer. Accessed November 19, 2012.

Joones, Jeffrey M. Voters Equally Favorable to Romney, Obama. (2012). Gallup Organization. Accessed November 19, 2012.

Politico. 2012 Presdential Election. (2012). Accessed November 19, 2012.

Wood County Elections Office. Election Summary Report 2008 Presidential General Election. (2008). Accessed November 19, 2012.

Wood County Elections Office. Final Unofficial Results in Wood County Ohio. (2012). Accessed November 19, 2012.

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